Solid growth is expected in the home remodeling market this year but momentum should begin to moderate in the fourth quarter, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University. Sluggishness in the housing market and specifically in home sales may result in a deceleration of home improvement spending from double-digit annual growth through the third quarter to a year-over-year gain in the high single digits by the end of the year.

“The housing recovery has at least temporarily lost some of its momentum,” says Eric S. Belsky, managing director of JCHS.  “And as a result, remodeling spending is expected to follow suit and see slower growth beginning later this year.”

“Home improvement spending has already recovered a significant share of its losses from the downturn,” says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at JCHS.  “As spending moves into the next phase, we expect to see recent double-digit growth tail off to its longer-term average in the mid-single-digit range.”